New Climate Study Increases Certainty of Warming Due to Greenhouse Emissions

In 2015, 197 countries from around the world gathered to ratify the Paris Climate agreement. By signing on to the agreement, 173 countries pledged to lower their greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to control global warming. At the time of the agreement, models had shown that Climate Change will lead to global temperature increases of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (or 2.7 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit). (http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php)

However, earlier this month, scientists at the University of Exeter in Great Britain published a paper that predicts the range of increase to be from 2.2 to 3.4 degrees Celsius (or 3.96 to 6.12 degrees Fahrenheit). Additionally, the paper reduces the uncertainty in previous models by 60%. In other words, the predictions are more accurate than previous predictions. (https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450)

Those who say that 3 degrees Celsius is not a large increase are mistaken. if our warming reaches 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), more than 100,000 square miles of wetlands and dry land will be lost. Furthermore, for each degree Celsius (1.8 F) of warming, there is a 400% increase in the area burned by forest fires in the United States alone.  (https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-change-gets-a-bit-clearer/)

Overall, the new climate models are important for climate optimism. Scientists are now less uncertain about how bad climate changes effects will be and can therefore make appropriate environmental preparations. (https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-change-gets-a-bit-clearer/)

Sources:
https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-change-gets-a-bit-clearer/
http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450